Yoyoyo

Cuando aplicas a la lotería no estas aplicando a una visa de inmigrantes estas aplicando a una lotería. Para aplicar una visa de inmigrantes tienes que hacer inversiones y seguir una serie de pasos mucho más complicado. Trata de sacar tu visa de turista que por participar en la lotería no te la van a negar

Más información sobre los captchas

in response to Strong:

Hi brits. I managed to place 5th on the Captcha puzzle this time around. I noticed that the number of captchas left increases and decreases randomly;could there be an error in the software?

Thanks for your effort. No – it’s not an error. What is happening is that the system is now trying to find the max case numbers so the number left to solve will seem bizarre for a while – but it’s just part of the process to find the max number. In fact we are going to have to check over 110k numbers to find all the real cases, but we only need to get that full range at the beginning, and then the checking will get a bit smarter later. There won’t be any need to check a number we know to be a hole, for instance. The 100k comes from the max numbers in each region. We know AF is about 53k, EU is in the low 40k range, AS about 13k, OC and SA are about 2500 each. So – that is the 110k. But of that 110k only 30k were current, and MANY of those 110k will be holes. Make sense?

2. Actualización del proceso: aqui ya salen los 1eros resultados

http://britsimonsays.com/2018-ceac-data-scraping-update/

2018 CEAC data scraping update

First of all I want to say Happy New Year to all of you. I wish you health and happiness and I hope this year is the year your dreams come true.

As I announced in this earlier post, the CEAC data because available at midnight on January 1st. It is really important that as many people as possible take a few minutes a day to solve some CAPTCHAS to help scrape the CEAC data. Over 4000 people have looked at my announcement, and nearly 300 people have tried out the system to solve at least 1 CAPTCHA. BUT we need more people to share the workload! Right now members Simba, Abdikarim, Guyanese_Spice, ¥εηƴ have each solved over 2000 CAPTCHAS each – BIG thank you to them! I know solving CAPTCHAS is harder on some phones, so some won’t be able to help much, but I do think we can make the scraping go faster and easier if we can share the workload among more readers!

A BIG thank you to those members that have already solved some CAPTCHAS. One member was smart enough to mention how many CAPTCHAS he had solved when he asked a question this morning, and I was especially careful to give him a full and detailed answer to his question. Those who put effort in for the community as a whole can rightfully expect my full attention!

Now then – some people might now know why this data is important. So – let me explain what it is, how much data we have so far and what we can figure out with the data.

CEAC is a database that contains the status of every case for DV lottery. The earlier aticle explained how you can check the status of your own case. It only gives high level status. It cannot tell you whether your DS260 is processed, it cannot tell you when your AP will finish, it cannot tell you your actual interview date. It is just a high level status. It shows the status of the case (waiting to be scheduled, ready for interview, issued, refused, AP etc). Once the case is scheduled, it tells us the embassy the case is assigned to and the number of derivatives on each case. We can also figure out the holes, which is what we refer to as density (how many cases are missing from each 100 case numbers). Density decreases in AF, EU and AS regions, which is why VB progress can accelerate later in the year. Being able to predict that density drop is helpful to predict VB progress.  So – it is very useful data.

So far we have solved about 35000 CAPTCHAS, (each captcha allowing us to check one case number). Xarthisius setup the software to go after the current case ranges first and then go back and find the rest of the case numbers, right up to the highest case number in each region. Right now the scraper has already got all the cases that have been scheduled up to the latest VB – so 14300 for AF region, 10700 for EU and so on. That has allowed me to total the totals for each region which I will show below. Currently the system is going after the higher case numbers in each region. We probably have around 65000 more numbers to check. Once we have checked ALL the case numbers we will then be able to see the density changes throughout the whole number range and perform some extensive analysis. However, some interesting details are already being revealed. More on that later in this article.

So – Here are the current totals as shown by the data.

Please note that because of the way CEAC is updated by the embassy, there are some cases where AP, REFUSED and READY numbers are not accurate. For instance. If a principal selectee is refused, the derivatives on that case CANNOT be approved. However, some derivatives might remain in READY or AP status because the embassy doesn’t mark all derivatives as refused. I have a way to calculate those cases but for now, these numbers are a good enough representation to show the progress.  However, the embassies seem to be more diligent with Issued status – so that number is more reliable. We can see that nearly 9000 visas have been issued so far – that being after 3 months of interviews. Bear in mind that many of the AP cases will be successful so we will see that issued number rising faster in later months. That is normal.

Now – I also mentioned there was an interesting finding in the data so far. This concerns EU region. As of now I can only see EU numbers up to about 12000. But there is a very obvious drop in density that happened just after 10700. That means at least one of the countries (probably Uzbekistan or Ukraine) met the selection limit by that point. In other words for that country (and I don’t know which one it is) ALL their cases were given case numbers of below 10700. Each of those two countries had nearly 4500 selectees (including derivatives) so that means one of those countries took about 2800 to 3000 cases in the first 10700 case numbers. To understand why that happens please read my old post that explains the draw process.

Now, what does this mean for VB progress. Well, in a post I wrote a couple of months ago (actually written on October 12) I explained how VB progress happens in some detail, using EU as an example. At that time I mentioned we would see increases of about 2500 per month for EU until March or April. In fact, the reduced density will mean we will start to see slightly faster VB progress. Probably about 3500 for the next VB for EU. I had predicted we would see about 16000 by April interviews, and in fact we should be nicely above that by April. These are rough estimates, not accurate predictions, but once I start seeing more complete data I will be able to refine the guesses. I cannot do the same for other regions yet because I need the rest of the data. So please – don’t bother asking me – just get solving CAPTCHAS!! 

En este link hay un cuadro conlal siguiente info (voy a poner solo SA)

Visas entregadas 230

AP 30

Ready 342

Negadas 12

In tránsito 1

Transfer 0

Buenos días gente un muy buen feliz año para todos y que el próximo lo podamos celebrar en USA. El motivo de este post es que Mr. Brit Simon del foro http://www.britsimonsays.com junto a otro forista que imagino es programador diseñaron una herramienta para poder extraer los datos del ceac de manera mucho mas rápida. La herramienta consiste en resolver los captchas y de manera directa le van arrojando datos importantes como visas aprobadas visas negadas AP holes y todos estos datos juntos van a dar de manera más precisa los safe numbers la herramienta lleva funcionando desde el 1 de enero y ya ha arrojado varios datos importantes que voy a poner a continuación:

Les recuerdo nuestro grupo de Facebook green card venezuela ahí también está toda la información

@duquesita no tienes de que preocuparte si sales sorteada tienes que llenar la ds260 y ahí te preguntan donde haces la entrevista. Este año ya hay tres visas aprobadas de venezolanos una en México uruguay y otra en España

Salió bien chimbo solo 75 personas hasta el 500

Latest travel ban ended for most people

As I mentioned in my post the other daythe latest version of the travel ban was blocked by a Federal judge in Hawaii, and now also by one additional court.  The block eliminates the travel ban restrictions for the vast majority of affected people. So – selectees from  Chad, Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia are not subject to any restrictions at this time. The tiny number of affected people from North Korea and Venezuela are still affected by the ban. Selectees can interview, and can be approved. Once approved, I would advise people from these countries to activate their visas (enter the USA) quickly.

I am pretty sure this block will be appealed by the Trump government once again, so it is possible that the ban could be re-implemented with little or no notice.

So – there is some risk to these cases that you should be take into account. Some selectees will be put on Administrative Processing (AP) that can last weeks and months. This AP is to allow additional background (security) checks. That type of AP is very common for Iranian cases, and other cases could experience the same thing. So – people need to decide for themselves whether to take the risk of interviewing, and hoping that any period of AP can be resolved before the ban is re-implemented.

The official announcement from the state department of their handling of the blocked executive order can be read here:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/news/important-announcement.html